Monthly View.

Despite the recent escalation in trade tensions, markets in July posted solid gains (the US sharemarket in particular), supported by strong economic data and positive corporate earnings.

Global stock returns were flat overall in June, after staging some recovery in the previous two months, but still below the peak levels reached in January. Lingering trade jitters continue to weigh on market sentiment, even though broader fundamentals still appear supportive.

Global equities continued their rebound in May, after good gains in April, as interest rate and geopolitical risks eased somewhat, and the tail end of the US corporate earnings remained strong.

Global equities rebounded in April, partly unwinding the declines from the previous two months. The rebound came despite a lift in global bond yields and reflected ongoing good growth in earnings.

Sharemarkets weakened for a second consecutive month in March, eliminating gains recorded in January. Major indices fell, the S&P 500 returned -2.69%, the FTSE 100 fell -2.54%, and the ASX 200 was down -4.27%.

Sharemarkets got off to a rocky start with the US S&P 500 index down 4.97% for the first week in February. This fed through to the NZX which was down 2.26% over the same period but managed to claw back most of that by the end of the month, to finish down -0.8%.

It is hard to see the excellent market returns of 2017 being replicated in 2018. Nevertheless, we do not see that we are in “bubble” territory just yet.